Studies of expert forecasters have found that those who consistently outperform peers tend to update their predictions incrementally as new information arrives, rather than maintaining fixed positions or making abrupt reversals. The most accurate forecasters were also more likely to express their forecasts in quantitative probabilities than as binary "yes" or "no" predictions, and they tracked their own track records carefully.
Which inference is most strongly supported by the passage?
- A
Forecasting accuracy depends primarily on the strength of initial intuitions
- B
Quantitative forecasts always outperform qualitative ones in any domain
- C
Tracking one's track record diminishes forecasting accuracy
- Dcheck_circle
Forecasting performance may be associated with practices that maintain calibration over time
Explanation
Incremental updates, quantitative probabilities, and self-tracking among top forecasters supports B. A, C, D contradict or overgeneralize.