Two candidate polls: Candidate X 51%, Candidate Y 49%, margin of error \pm 4\%. What is the most reliable conclusion?

The race is too close to call given the margin of error. With \pm 4\% margin, the candidates' confidence intervals overlap heavily. The race is statistically a tie.

The race is too close to call given the margin of error.

Inference from Sample Statistics and Margin of Error

SAT Math· difficulty 5/5

\pm 4\%

A
$Y is winning.$
B
$The race is too close to call given the margin of error.$
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C
$X is winning.$
D
$There is exactly a 2% gap.$

Explanation

\pm 4\%

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