Inference from Sample Statistics and Margin of Error

SAT Math· difficulty 4/5

A poll says 48% support a policy with margin of error ±2.5%\pm 2.5\% at 95% confidence. The most reliable conclusion is:

  • A

    Exactly 48% of the population supports the policy.

  • B

    We are 95% confident that between 45.5% and 50.5% of the population supports the policy.

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  • C

    There is a 95% chance that any single person supports the policy.

  • D

    The policy will fail.

Explanation

Margin of error gives a 95% CI: 48%±2.5%=(45.5%,50.5%)48\% \pm 2.5\% = (45.5\%, 50.5\%).

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